Five-a-Side: Ivy League's Robin Harris

NCAA Football Betting Lines

02/15/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The big question with Ivy League football often centers around the school presidents keeping the league champion on the sidelines during the FCS playoffs.

This week, another important issue developed for the Ivy League: the Patriot League announced it will begin to offer football scholarships with the 2013 season. It certainly isn't welcomed news for the Ivy League, which offers need-based financial aid to student-athletes, but not athletic scholarships.

The two leagues have enjoyed an outstanding relationship through the years, both in their commitment to academics and their regional proximity for scheduling games. Two-thirds of the Ivy's non-league games will be against Patriot opponents this coming season.

But as the scholarships in Patriot programs - 15 per recruiting class - add up, the playing field won't be so level. Ivy programs will be hard-pressed to be as competitive as they have been against their sister league.

Robin Harris, executive director for the Ivy League, wants to see the rivalries continue, but acknowledges there could be some change in future scheduling.

It might not even be the decision of the Ivy schools. Patriot programs may want to branch out with more non-league games against scholarship opponents.

In Five-a-Side - In the FCS Huddle's monthly feature of "five questions, five answers" with an influential person in the FCS - Harris discusses the Patriot League's decision to add football scholarships as well as that old elephant in the room, the Ivy football champion not going to the playoffs.

Let's kick off:

TSN: How will the Patriot League's decision affect the Ivy League?

RH: I don't think it will affect us that much, to be honest. Our schools were not offering athletic scholarships before the Patriot League was formed (in 1986) and will continue to not offer athletic scholarships. We enjoy playing Patriot League schools, they're not changing who they are academically, it's a good fit for us to play them when we can. I think that you'll still see our schools playing Patriot League schools, certainly in the near future. Even if there's diminishment of the number of games that we would play them, I still think there are natural rivalries and we're in the geographic region, our academic values are similar. Our schools are still going to have to play teams that offer athletic scholarships.

TSN: Obviously, some of your football programs play scholarship opponents even now, like Penn playing a Villanova or another school playing a Fordham with scholarships. Is it difficult to do that?

RH: Well, there's a difference, right, playing a Villanova who recently was in the championship game versus playing other scholarship schools that don't even qualify for the tournament. So I think it just varies. It's no different than any other sport, where we're playing scholarship schools in every other sport and we have wins in some of those and we have losses in some of those. So I think the same dynamics will be in play. We have great coaches and we have great tradition in the Ivy League. We have an ability to attract good student- athletes because of the schools that we are - the academics that are involved, the degree that they get and how that sets them up for a life beyond athletics.

TSN: Your programs often schedule games years in advance. Is it possible that feelings five years down the line could be different?

RH: Sure. I have no way of knowing that, how things will change. I think things tend to evolve. And I haven't had a chance to talk to the athletic directors since the decision, but I think they're going to continue to schedule programs that make sense for our schools to play. Same thing for our coaches. We have certain rivalries with the Patriot League that I think will continue. There may be other games that stop because there will be reasons to look at other athletic scholarship schools. But, certainly, I like the relationship that we have with the Patriot League and I hope that that continues.

TSN: How viable is it to schedule more games against Pioneer League teams (the only other FCS conference without football scholarships)?

RH: You know, then you start to get into travel issues. So I think that's the other key piece to this, is that the Patriot League is in our footprint. I think you may see occasional games where we go outside our footprint - that happens now - so we may see that a little bit more. But I don't know because that has a financial component and a time component to it.

TSN: So many people around your football teams, especially the coaches, continue to be in favor of sending the league champion to the FCS playoffs. Why aren't the school presidents changing that policy?

RH: There's an interest in focusing on the Ivy League season, that that should be the most important thing in football. We just have so much tradition and there's great value to be placed on the Ivy League season. There's also a concern with exams at that time of year.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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