Breen prepares Pants On Fire for return

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/09/2012 - Hallandale Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Saturday marks a big day for trainer Kelly Breen with the return of his 2011 Belmont Stakes champion Ruler On Ice. The four-year-old gelding is one of the favorites for the $500,000 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park.

Earlier on the card, however, Breen's other highly respected four-year-old Pants On Fire is also expected to make his return to the races. The colt is listed to start in an allowance race on Gulfstream's turf course.

"We're going to take it race by race right now," said Breen, "He's ready to run, now. We're looking at an allowance race on the grass this weekend at Gulfstream (for his turf debut), but it's supposed to rain this weekend and that race may come off. I can't say for sure right now if we'll run him if it stays on the grass, but we'll see what happens this weekend and make our other plans after that."

Owned by George and Lori Hall, Pants On Fire is to be ridden by Rosie Napravnik who guided the colt to victory in last year's Louisiana Derby. The pair also combined to win the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park last June. The colt and rider finished ninth in the Kentucky Derby.

"Last year the Louisiana Derby was my first million dollar win and it was also Kelly's first million dollar win," Napravnik said.

Pants On Fire closed his 2011 season on July 31 with a fifth-place finish in the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth behind Coil, Shackleford and stablemate Ruler On Ice.

In 11 career starts Breen's charge has earned $828,100 with three wins and as many seconds.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.