Angels send Haren to the hill for matchup with Indians

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In-season acquisition Dan Haren makes the ninth start in a so-far unsuccessful stint with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim tonight when they host the Cleveland Indians to begin a three-game series at Angel Stadium.

A 14-game winner with the National League's Arizona Diamondbacks last season, the 29-year-old Haren was sent to the Angels at the non-waiver trade deadline in July in exchange for left-hander Joe Saunders.

He was expected to help the defending American League West champions in defense of their title, but has instead gone 2-4 in eight starts as Los Angeles has plummeted to third in the division and 9 1/2 games behind first- place Texas.

The Californian tossed seven scoreless innings in a hard-luck no-decision in an Aug. 31 start at Seattle, scattering seven hits and striking out eight in the Angels' 3-1 loss to the Mariners.

He was effective over six innings in a 12-3 defeat of Tampa Bay one start earlier while allowing three hits and a run on Aug. 25.

In eight starts with the Angels, he's posted a 3.50 earned run average after racking up a 4.60 ERA in 21 starts with Arizona to begin the season.

Lifetime against Cleveland, Haren is 2-2 in six starts.

For the Indians, right-hander Carlos Carrasco makes his second start of 2010 and seventh of his career while still seeking his first big-league win.

The 23-year-old Venezuelan made his season debut on Sept. 1 against the Chicago White Sox and got a no-decision in the Indians' 6-4 loss after surrendering six hits and three runs in 7 1/3 innings.

He reached the majors with five starts last season and was 0-4 while posting an 8.87 ERA in 22 1/3 innings, giving up 40 hits and 23 runs.

Carrasco has never faced the Angels.

On Sunday in Seattle, Russell Branyan homered and drove in two runs to back eight scoreless innings by Felix Hernandez as the Mariners topped Cleveland, 3-0, in the last of four games between the clubs from Safeco Field.

Jeanmar Gomez (3-3) allowed seven hits and two runs over six full frames in defeat for the Indians, who have lost six of eight.

In Oakland, Bobby Abreu drove in three runs and scored three times as the Angels took down the Athletics, 7-4, to avoid a three-game sweep at the Oakland Coliseum.

Abreu and Mike Napoli each homered for Los Angeles, which ended a six-game road trip with a 3-3 mark. Hideki Matsui and Torii Hunter had an RBI apiece.

Ervin Santana (15-9) gave up three runs -- two earned -- on six hits over six innings to improve to 5-1 over his last six starts. The right-hander also walked four batters and fanned three.

The Angels took two of three at home over the Indians back in April and have won six of the last eight overall meetings.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot.  The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.

TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the  drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.

"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,'  it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."

"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.

Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

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